NOVA SCOTIA HOME VALUE TREND
“Buy now!”
“Act now!
“Call me today!”
Are these sales tactics or is right now really the best time to buy? How do you tell? To be fair, it’s probably a little of both.
We’ve all heard of the real estate bubble that peaked during the pandemic, but it actually started in 2018. The big driver in Nova Scotia was a downturn in the Alberta oil and gas industry which prompted many oil field workers and their families to move to NS, with its lower cost of living and property prices. This caused a huge and rapid uptick in the NS property market with increased demand and buyers willing to pay more.
Then along came COVID.
While most of the world came to a grinding halt, the pandemic only slowed the real estate market for about two months before things picked back up again in a hurry. This time, it wasn’t Albertans flocking to our province but Ontarians, many of whom were looking for a different political environment or larger homes than their condos and apartments to isolate in. Once again, Nova Scotia properties, both rural and urban, were in high demand with out-of-province buyers offering more than asking and houses selling in less than two weeks. It was the ultimate seller’s market.
This trend continued (albeit with less intensity) until 2024 when things started shifting to a more balanced market. But by all indications, 2025 is looking to be the year of the buyer.
There are a few factors that buyers should consider when deciding whether it is, indeed, a good time to buy.
First, the average price this past December was about 5% higher than December 2023. This is what I have normally seen in Nova Scotia since starting in 2008 except during a few times when it was abnormally lower or higher for exceptional reasons (like COVID). This suggests that we’re back to a 5% year-over-year increase in prices so buyers should expect prices to continue to rise every year, not come down.
I’m also seeing houses stay on the market much longer than previously, up from less than two weeks to closer to 45 days. This is putting more pressure on sellers to accept offers, especially if they are motivated to sell quickly.
Interest rates are always a big concern and after an uncomfortable rise last year, we’re finally seeing rates come down. That said, I only anticipate another 0.25% drop this year so don’t feel there’s much cause for buyers to hold off.
Some people have expressed concern about the two looming federal elections, both in Canada and the US. My opinion is that we’ve seen big government changes in the recent past and they haven’t had much effect on the market.
With the holiday season behind us, we should start seeing more new listings come on the market giving buyers a fresh new selection. And with the restrictions on foreign buyers extended until January 1, 2027 (see Government announces two-year extension to ban on foreign ownership of Canadian housing - Canada.ca for more details), there is less competition and less chance of unbeatable offers from wealthy foreign buyers.
Of course, there is always the risk of paying too much if you offer more than the market value, so be sure to work with an experienced, reputable agent who can give you solid, sound advice through the purchase process.
And these factors will also affect you if you’re selling as well as buying, but the higher average sale price should still be in your favour.
In the end, the right time to buy comes down to whether you’re ready, with your deposit and closing costs available, your income and lifestyle relatively stable, your debt under control, ready to leave your current home, and know what you want. If you can check all those boxes, 2025 may be your year to buy.
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